TLD Brief #1: The Road to March Madness – Week 1 of 8 | Jan 2026
📰 THIS WEEK’S HEADLINES
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The Lender Draft thanks all our fans and supporters in our inaugural successful season, and a special thanks to Jeff Dunbar, Nolan Aurelia, Becca Ripley, Zach Barden, Janos Torok, and Alexandra Scoggins.
Moving on, I also want to congratulate TLD’s Superbowl Champions: Affinius Capital, Monroe Capital, and Southstar Capital. They deployed significant capital and made 2025 an exciting finale for commercial lending. But now, we are shifting into a higher gear this year for all our brokers, borrowers, and lenders, The Lender Draft is the only platform that offers a truly unique experience for identifying and connecting with the most active lenders in the market.
The 2026 season of The Lender Draft has kicked off with a massive divergence in activity. While the broader market eased into the new year, CRE lenders in The Lender Draft league sprinted out of the gate, accounting for over half of all deal flow.
- CRE Volume Explosion: The Lender Draft CRE league logged 40 deals in just nine days. This frenetic pace has already created a “full field” and a cutline drama that usually doesn’t start until Week 4.
- Total Capital Surge: A staggering $9.77 Billion was deployed across all three leagues this week, but the vast majority is concentrated in large-cap real estate transactions.
- Growth Capital & ABL Slow Start: In sharp contrast, the ABL (19 deals) and Growth Capital (16 deals) leagues are seeing a “wait-and-see” approach.
- The Early Narrative: If you are in CRE, you are already behind if you haven’t booked a deal. If you are in ABL or GC, the door is wide open to steal a high seed next week.
🏆 LENDERS OF THE WEEK
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
Leader: Wells Fargo
This Week: 4 deals | 55 points
Biggest Deal: $1.6 Billion | Construction Loan | New York, NY
Wells Fargo is playing a different game than everyone else. By anchoring a $1.6B syndicate for the new Deloitte HQ tower in NYC, they secured the projected #1 seed. With 4 deals logged, they are the only lender in The Lender Draft league to crack the 50-point barrier this week.
GROWTH CAPITAL
Leader: JP Morgan
This Week: 3 deals | 42 points
Biggest Deal: $600 Million | Acquisition Loan | Industrial Sector
JP Morgan takes the early pole position in a quiet Growth Capital field. Their $600M facility for Faropoint’s industrial acquisition accounts for a significant chunk of the league’s total volume. In a bracket with only 16 total deals, JP Morgan currently holds nearly 20% of the entire sector’s activity.
ASSET-BASED LENDING
Leader: Midcap Business Credit
This Week: 2 deals | 6 points
Biggest Deal: $12 Million | Working Capital Revolver | Agricultural Supplies
Midcap Business Credit separates themselves in a tighter ABL race. While deal sizes here are smaller (top deal: $12M), their multi-deal volume in Week 1 of The Lender Draft league is the key differentiator. They sit alone atop the leaderboard while most ABL lenders are stuck at 1 or 0 deals.
📊 THE LENDER DRAFT QUALIFICATION POWER RANKINGS
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
CLIMBING THE BRACKET ↑ Wells Fargo (Rank #1)
Dominance. They are setting the ceiling. Their mix of massive construction loans and steady multifamily volume makes them the team to beat.
FALLING BACK ↓ The Field
With 40 deals logged, any lender who posted a “zero” this week has already seen a significant drop in projected seeding. The pace in CRE is currently 4.4 deals per day—missing a week here is costly.
GROWTH CAPITAL
CLIMBING THE BRACKET ↑ JP Morgan (Rank #1)
In a slow sector (16 deals total), JP Morgan’s 3-deal week is a massive outlier. They have effectively built a “moat” around the #1 seed for at least another week.
FALLING BACK Week 1 Baseline The field is too thin to identify fallers yet. 50% of the bracket spots are currently unfilled.
ASSET-BASED LENDING
CLIMBING THE BRACKET ↑ Midcap Business Credit (Rank #1)
The only ABL lender to record multiple deals this week. In a volume-based league, consistency is king, and Midcap is the only one showing it so far.
FALLING BACK Week 1 Baseline
Similar to GC, the ABL bracket has open slots. Participation next week is the only requirement to “climb.”
🔴 BUBBLE WATCH: THE FIGHT FOR #32
The “Cutline” projects the minimum number of deals required to qualify for the tournament.
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
Cutline: 1 deal (Tiebreaker: Points)
🚨 BRACKET FULL: Because of the 40-deal surge, CRE is the only league with a full bracket and an active bubble in Week 1.
IN THE TOURNAMENT (barely):
- #30: BHI – 1 deal, 3 points
- #31: Crestline Investors – 1 deal, 3 points
- #32: Wilshire Finance Partners – 1 deal, 3 points
FIRST OUT (hunting for spots):
- #33: Bloomfield Partners – 1 deal, 3 points (Loses tiebreaker)
- #34: [Field Wide Open]
Analysis: This is unprecedented for Week 1 in the Lender Draft. We already have active lenders (Bloomfield) on the outside looking in. If you are a CRE lender with 1 deal, you are not safe. You need a second deal immediately to escape this logjam.
GROWTH CAPITAL
Cutline: TBD as the field is incomplete right now
IN THE TOURNAMENT:
- Only 16 deals have been logged total.
- Any lender who booked a deal is currently a Top 16 seed in The Lender Draft.
FIRST OUT:
- Currently, no one is “out.” There are 16 open spots remaining in the bracket.
Bubble Analysis: With only 16 deals total, the field is not full. Fewer than 32 lenders have participated. If you book a deal in Week 2, you are in.
ASSET-BASED LENDING
Cutline: TBD as the field is incomplete right now
IN THE TOURNAMENT:
- Only 19 deals have been logged total.
- The field is 60% full.
FIRST OUT:
- #33-34: Dozens tied at 0.
🔥 LENDER SPOTLIGHT: WELLS FARGO (CRE)
League: Commercial Real Estate
Current Rank: #1 Overall in The Lender Draft League
Week 1 Stats: 4 Deals | 55 Points | $1.6B Top Deal
Wells Fargo is defining the market. In a week where the sector saw 40 total deals, Wells Fargo captured 10% of the entire league’s volume and a massive percentage of the total capital.
Their strategy appears to be “Shock and Awe” which is deploying massive capital into high-visibility projects while maintaining volume.
- The Anchor: The $1.6B construction loan for the Deloitte HQ in NYC signals they are still writing the biggest checks in the room.
- The Mix: They balanced this mega-deal with volume in Multifamily/Affordable Housing and New York Office deals (50% concentration).
While other banks are hesitating on office product, Wells Fargo is doubling down on trophy assets to rack up points in the lender draft league. They have effectively secured their tournament bid in Week 1.
Check out our in-depth profile on Wells Fargo if you are looking for a CRE loan.
📈 BY THE NUMBERS: WEEK 1
Total Capital Deployed: $9,770,067,968 ($9.77 Billion)
Deal Volume by League:
- CRE: 40 deals (53%)
- ABL: 19 deals (25%)
- Growth Capital: 16 deals (22%)
Most Active Lender (Overall): Wells Fargo (CRE) – 4 deals
Sector Snapshot (Cross-League Funding):
- Multifamily: 19 deals (Dominant in CRE)
- Energy: 9 deals (Strong in ABL/GC)
- Industrial: 4 deals (Driven by JP Morgan’s $600M acquisition)
Geographic Hotspots:
- New York: 14 deals (Driven by CRE office activity)
- Florida: 7 deals (Multifamily volume)
- California: 5 deals (Est. based on CRE Mixed-Use activity)
💡 WHAT THIS WEEK TELLS US
Week 1 has shattered expectations of a slow January start, but only in one sector. Commercial Real Estate is overheating. With 40 deals on the board and $9.77B deployed, the competition for the CRE Top 32 in the Lender Draft is going to be a bloodbath. The fact that we already have a “Bubble” (Bloomfield Partners at #33) in Week 1 indicates that the final cutline for CRE could reach record highs.
In contrast, ABL and Growth Capital are sleeping giants. With only 19 and 16 deals respectively, these markets are waiting for the mid-market engine to turn over. The opportunity cost for ABL lenders is high right now—Midcap Business Credit took the #1 seed in the Lender Draft with just 2 deals.
TLD Takeaway:
- CRE Lenders: You cannot coast. One deal is a bubble grade. You need volume now.
- ABL/GC Lenders: The field is wide open. Strike early in Week 2 to build a points cushion before the rest of the market wakes up.
- Brokers: The “Big Banks” (Wells Fargo) are clearly in “Risk-On” mode for trophy assets. If you have a large-cap deal in New York or Florida, shop it now while they are hunting for points.
- Borrowers: If you are a developer, Lenders are aggressively deploying capital early in the year. Dust off those financials and start submitting.
- PolyM-Analysts: The market sentiment says office is dead; Wells Fargo just bet $1.6B against that. The smart money is buying the dip on Class-A office. Also, the rotation into “Real Assets” (Industrial, Ag, Energy, Real Estate) is the dominant trend of Q1.
Ultimately, the sheer scale of capital—$9.77 Billion—tells us the market is awake. The “dry powder” is being deployed, but right now, it’s real estate developers, not operating companies, who are catching the majority of the checks.
📅 LOOKING AHEAD: WEEK 2
- CRE: Will the regional banks respond? Wells Fargo has thrown the gauntlet down. We expect the “Big Center Money” banks (BoA, Goldman) to file their response in Week 2.
- The Bubble: Watch the #32 spot in CRE. If Wilshire Finance Partners doesn’t log a deal next week, they will likely be swallowed by the pack.
- Field Filling: We need 16 more lenders in GC and 13 in ABL just to fill the brackets. Expect Week 2 The Lender Draft to be the “Week of the New Entrant.”
BRACKETS ARE LIVE. Every deal counts.
Final Word: The CRE bracket is already locked in a sprint. The other two are still stretching. Week 2 of the Lender Draft will tell us if CRE slows down, or if the others speed up.
🗳️ NOMINATE A LENDER FOR THE TLD MARCH MADNESS TOURNAMENT
Do you know a lender who is moving mountains?
We are tracking over 1,400+ lenders, but the market moves fast. If you are a lender closing deals, or a broker who just closed with a rockstar team, get them on the board.
Don’t let their deals go uncounted.
👉 CLICK HERE TO SUBMIT A DEAL NOMINATION
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The Lender Draft is tracking 1,400+ lenders competing for 96 total spots across THREE tournaments.
See full qualification standings: The Lender Draft March Madness League
Until next week, Bye-bye